PJB-2021-1509
Multi-factoral OLSR and MLR modelling of climatological and crop production trends in coastal areas of Pakistan
Syeda Urooj Fatima, Moazzam Ali Khan, Rabia Majeed, Aamir Alamgir and S. Shahid Shaukat
Abstract
Facing the impacts of climate change and decline in the agriculture crop productions, the coastal districts of Southern Pakistan, Thatta and Badin, are facing severe economic instability due to their high dependency on climate sensitive natural sources for livelihood. These issues need to be resolved by taking appropriate measure with respect to climate change mitigation and adaptation mechanisms based on trend analysis of climatological variables and future forecasting approaches. Since agriculture is the primary livelihood option of these districts, climatological variations have highly altered sowing and harvesting periods of agricultural crops. In this study climatological variable including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed and relative humidity were statistically analyzed and their impacts on the yield of wheat, rice and sugarcane crops in Thatta and Badin were computed for a period from 1981 to 2019 (39 years). Using multi-factoral approach and applications of Pearson’s Correlation, Ordinary Least Square Regression (OLSR) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) Models, 30 OLSR-based and 6 MLR-based statistical equations were developed for future forecasting and prediction of the climatological impacts. Temperature and precipitation have shown highly significant correlation and regression estimates; whereas wind speed and relative humidity have lesser impacts on crop production. The study provides baseline for forecasting future trends in the crop yield with regards to climatological variations in the study area
To Cite this article:
Fatima, S.U., M.A. Khan, R. Majeed, A. Alamgir and S.S. Shaukat. 2021. Multi-factoral OLSR and MLR modelling of climatological and crop production trends in coastal areas of Pakistan. Pak. J. Bot., 53(2): DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30848/PJB2021-2(16)
Download
