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A meta‑analysis of climate change impacts on endemic plant species in south Sinai: quantifying population declines, heterogeneity, and extinction risk
Abstract
Climate change represents a growing threat to biodiversity, particularly in arid mountain ecosystems that support geographically restricted plant species. In South Sinai, Egypt, endemic flora occupies highly specialized habitats and is increasingly exposed to rising temperatures and prolonged drought conditions. Although several ecological studies have examined these impacts, their findings remain fragmented and difficult to evaluate collectively. This article provides the first quantitative meta-analysis of climate change impacts on endemic plant species in South Sinai. A systematic literature search covering the period from 2000 to 2025 identified 12 eligible studies, yielding 28 independent effect sizes. Standardized effect sizes (Hedges’ g) were calculated to evaluate changes in population abundance, distribution patterns, and reproductive performance under climate-related stress. A random-effects meta-analytic framework was applied to account for between-study heterogeneity. The overall pooled effect size was significantly negative (g = –0.51, 95% CI: –0.62 to –0.40), indicating a moderate-to-strong decline in endemic plant performance associated with climate stressors. Subgroup analyses revealed that drought-related variables had a stronger negative impact than temperature alone, while population abundance exhibited greater declines than distributional shifts. Species with restricted geographic ranges were particularly vulnerable. Meta-regression further indicated that higher-elevation species experienced significantly greater declines than lower-elevation taxa. The findings demonstrate that climate change, especially increasing drought severity, poses a substantial risk to the persistence of endemic flora in South Sinai. The study also highlights the importance of species-specific conservation strategies, including habitat management, drought mitigation, and ex situ conservation for highly threatened taxa. Overall, this synthesis provides a quantitative basis for future monitoring and conservation planning in arid mountain ecosystems.
